Author: Larry Schaeffer Retired, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
Results are based on a linear statistical model where y = (Home Team Score - Visiting Team Score) is explained by (Month effect(Nov to March)) + Home Game Advantage Effect + (Conference of Home Team effect - Conference of Visiting Team effect) + (Home Team Effect - Visiting Team Effect) + residual term. Accounts for who has played who and where and when, and to which conferences they belong, and allows different home game advantage for each team (i.e. the advantage of playing at home). This is a mixed model analysis using BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction).
EPA for a team = Conference Effect + Team Effect.
EPA = Expected Points Advantage over opponents
HGA = Home Game Advantage over opponents
Updated: 20120311 - LAST UPDATE OF THE SEASON. ENJOY THE SUMMER.
Number of Games in Analysis 5255
TEAM RANKINGS
| RANK | TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | Home Advantage | Expected Point Advantage,EPA |
| 1 | CONNECTICUT | 28 | 4 | -0.2 | 46.9 |
| 2 | NOTRE DAME | 30 | 3 | -2.6 | 44.9 |
| 3 | BAYLOR | 33 | 0 | 0.0 | 44.1 |
| 4 | STANFORD | 30 | 1 | -6.5 | 39.7 |
| 5 | MARYLAND | 27 | 4 | -1.6 | 33.0 |
| 6 | DUKE | 24 | 5 | 6.1 | 31.1 |
| 7 | TENNESSEE | 24 | 8 | 7.1 | 28.2 |
| 8 | PENN ST | 23 | 6 | -2.3 | 27.1 |
| 9 | MIAMI (FL) | 25 | 5 | 9.3 | 26.5 |
| 10 | TEXAS A&M; | 22 | 10 | 4.4 | 25.2 |
| 11 | DELAWARE | 30 | 1 | -2.1 | 24.8 |
| 12 | GEORGETOWN | 21 | 8 | -6.0 | 24.7 |
| 13 | RUTGERS | 21 | 9 | -3.8 | 24.3 |
| 14 | GREEN BAY | 30 | 1 | -2.6 | 23.9 |
| 15 | ST. JOHN'S | 21 | 9 | -3.0 | 23.7 |
| 16 | GEORGIA TECH | 23 | 8 | 1.2 | 23.6 |
| 17 | KENTUCKY | 25 | 6 | 3.9 | 23.6 |
| 18 | DEPAUL | 22 | 10 | -2.2 | 22.9 |
| 19 | ARKANSAS | 23 | 8 | -5.9 | 22.8 |
| 20 | FLORIDA ST | 14 | 16 | -7.2 | 22.5 |
| 21 | VIRGINIA | 22 | 10 | -2.2 | 22.2 |
| 22 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 22 | 9 | -1.7 | 22.0 |
| 23 | NEBRASKA | 24 | 7 | -1.2 | 21.9 |
| 24 | CALIFORNIA | 24 | 9 | 2.5 | 21.2 |
| 25 | LSU | 22 | 10 | -0.7 | 21.0 |
| 26 | GONZAGA | 25 | 5 | -1.9 | 20.9 |
| 27 | KANSAS | 19 | 12 | -0.9 | 20.8 |
| 28 | ST. BONAVENTURE | 28 | 3 | -5.8 | 20.7 |
| 29 | WEST VIRGINIA | 22 | 9 | 7.2 | 20.6 |
| 30 | TEMPLE | 21 | 8 | -2.7 | 20.6 |
| 31 | PRINCETON | 24 | 4 | 1.9 | 20.3 |
| 33 | GEORGIA | 21 | 8 | 2.8 | 20.1 |
| 34 | FLORIDA | 19 | 12 | -0.7 | 20.1 |
| 35 | TEXAS | 18 | 13 | 1.0 | 20.0 |
| 36 | OKLAHOMA | 20 | 12 | 3.7 | 20.0 |
| 37 | USC | 17 | 12 | -1.7 | 19.9 |
| 38 | PURDUE | 24 | 8 | 0.5 | 19.8 |
| 39 | WAKE FOREST | 19 | 13 | -3.0 | 19.7 |
| 40 | TEXAS TECH | 18 | 13 | 3.9 | 19.6 |
| 41 | VILLANOVA | 16 | 14 | -5.0 | 19.6 |
| 42 | IOWA ST | 18 | 12 | 1.7 | 19.1 |
| 43 | N CAROLINA ST | 18 | 14 | -5.4 | 18.9 |
| 44 | KANSAS ST | 19 | 13 | 0.8 | 18.8 |
| 45 | LOUISVILLE | 22 | 9 | 7.4 | 18.8 |
| 46 | MICHIGAN | 20 | 10 | -1.4 | 18.8 |
| 47 | MICHIGAN ST | 20 | 11 | -0.4 | 18.6 |
| 48 | OHIO ST | 24 | 6 | 6.4 | 18.6 |
| 49 | DAYTON | 23 | 6 | 2.8 | 17.7 |
| 50 | OREGON ST | 18 | 12 | -3.7 | 17.4 |
| 51 | OKLAHOMA ST | 16 | 12 | 3.6 | 17.1 |
| 52 | VANDERBILT | 21 | 9 | 6.6 | 16.7 |
| 53 | SYRACUSE | 18 | 14 | 1.5 | 16.7 |
| 54 | ARIZONA ST | 20 | 11 | 1.4 | 16.3 |
| 56 | WASHINGTON ST | 13 | 19 | -4.7 | 15.8 |
| 57 | UCLA | 13 | 16 | -2.5 | 15.8 |
| 59 | IOWA | 18 | 11 | 5.8 | 15.6 |
| 60 | HAMPTON | 26 | 4 | 1.7 | 15.4 |
| 61 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 17 | 15 | 0.3 | 15.3 |
| 62 | NORTH CAROLINA | 20 | 10 | 6.7 | 15.3 |
| 63 | WASHINGTON | 16 | 13 | -1.9 | 15.1 |
| 64 | BYU | 26 | 6 | 9.2 | 15.1 |
| 65 | UTAH | 15 | 15 | -2.1 | 15.0 |
| 66 | SAN DIEGO | 22 | 8 | 0.2 | 13.9 |
| 67 | RICHMOND | 22 | 8 | -1.2 | 13.6 |
| 68 | DREXEL | 18 | 13 | -1.4 | 13.5 |
| 69 | MEMPHIS | 24 | 7 | -5.3 | 13.3 |
| 70 | MISSOURI ST | 22 | 8 | -0.7 | 13.2 |
| 71 | FLA GULF COAST | 7 | 1 | 7.3 | 13.0 |
| 72 | BOWLING GREEN | 24 | 6 | -1.5 | 12.7 |
| 73 | FRESNO ST | 28 | 5 | 0.8 | 12.7 |
| 74 | COLORADO | 17 | 13 | -0.4 | 12.5 |
| 75 | CREIGHTON | 20 | 12 | -2.0 | 12.4 |
| 76 | NORTHWESTERN | 13 | 16 | -9.4 | 12.4 |
| 77 | ILLINOIS | 11 | 19 | -1.9 | 12.1 |
| 78 | JAMES MADISON | 24 | 7 | -1.3 | 12.1 |
| 79 | MISSOURI | 13 | 18 | -0.3 | 12.0 |
| 80 | UNLV | 22 | 9 | -7.1 | 11.9 |
| 81 | MID TENNESSEE | 26 | 6 | 0.0 | 11.6 |
| 82 | AUBURN | 12 | 17 | 2.2 | 11.0 |
| 83 | MINNESOTA | 15 | 17 | 6.8 | 11.0 |
| 84 | CINCINNATI | 15 | 15 | 0.9 | 10.9 |
| 85 | E MICHIGAN | 23 | 8 | 8.5 | 10.9 |
| 86 | MARQUETTE | 14 | 17 | -0.4 | 10.8 |
| 87 | SAINT JOSEPH'S | 21 | 10 | 1.4 | 10.8 |
| 88 | QUINNIPIAC | 22 | 9 | -12.6 | 10.4 |
| 89 | MIAMI (OH) | 21 | 9 | -6.2 | 10.3 |
| 90 | UTEP | 29 | 3 | 3.2 | 10.1 |
| 91 | FGCU | 22 | 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 |
| 92 | WISCONSIN | 8 | 20 | -5.2 | 10.0 |
| 93 | WICHITA ST | 19 | 11 | 2.3 | 9.6 |
| 94 | SETON HALL | 8 | 23 | -5.4 | 9.5 |
| 95 | SAINT MARY'S | 21 | 10 | 1.0 | 9.4 |
| 96 | S DAKOTA ST | 23 | 8 | 5.0 | 9.0 |
| 97 | PROVIDENCE | 13 | 17 | -1.0 | 9.0 |
| 98 | VCU | 17 | 14 | -5.2 | 8.7 |
| 99 | MCNEESE ST | 25 | 7 | -2.4 | 8.7 |
| 100 | SAN DIEGO ST | 25 | 5 | 4.2 | 8.6 |
CONFERENCE EFFECTS
| Conf.No. | Conf. Name | Conf. Effects |
| 1 | WestCoast | 7.4 |
| 2 | WestAthl | -1.4 |
| 3 | SunBelt | -6.8 |
| 4 | Summit | -4.1 |
| 5 | Southwest | -9.7 |
| 6 | Southland | -3.1 |
| 7 | Southern | -4.3 |
| 8 | Southeast | 16.2 |
| 9 | Patriot | -2.9 |
| 10 | Pac12 | 17.1 |
| 11 | Ohio Valley | -7.7 |
| 12 | Northeast | -1.5 |
| 13 | MtnWest | 1.3 |
| 14 | MissouriVal | 5.1 |
| 15 | MidEast | -4.0 |
| 16 | MidAmerica | 2.5 |
| 17 | Metro | -3.9 |
| 18 | Ivy | -0.5 |
| 19 | Independ | -10.7 |
| 20 | Horizon | 3.5 |
| 21 | ConfUSA | 2.2 |
| 22 | Colonial | 6.1 |
| 23 | BigWest | 1.2 |
| 24 | BigTen | 15.6 |
| 25 | BigSouth | -6.1 |
| 26 | BigSky | -0.4 |
| 27 | BigEast | 20.2 |
| 28 | Big12 | 19.4 |
| 29 | AmEast | -1.6 |
| 30 | ATLSun | -7.8 |
| 31 | ATLCoast | 18.8 |
| 32 | ATL10 | 7.7 |
| 33 | Leftovers | -23.0 |
Only the top 100 are shown.