Author: Larry Schaeffer, Retired, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
Results are based on a simple linear statistical model where y = (Home Team Score - Visiting Team Score) is explained by (Month effect(Nov to March)) + Home Game Advantage Effect + (Conference of Home Team effect - Conference of Visiting Team effect) + (Home Team Effect - Visiting Team Effect) + residual term. Accounts for who has played who and where and when, and to which conferences they belong, and allows different home game advantage for each team (i.e. the advantage of playing at home). This is a mixed model analysis using BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction).
EPA for a team = Conference Effect + Team Effect.
EPA = Expected Points Advantage over opponents
HGA = Home Game Advantage over opponents
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Updated: 20120311 - LAST UPDATE FOR THIS SEASON. ENJOY MARCH MADNESS.
Number of Games in Analysis 11258
HOW TO PREDICT A FUTURE GAME: e.g.KENTUCKY vs MICHIGAN ST
1) At a neutral location
EPA KENTUCKY subtract EPA MICHIGAN ST = 4.2
KENTUCKY wins by 4.2 points.
2) At home for KENTUCKY
(EPA plus Home Adv for KENTUCKY ) subtract EPA MICHIGAN ST = 1.0
KENTUCKY wins by 1.0 points.
2) At home for MICHIGAN ST
EPA KENTUCKY subtract (EPA+Home Adv. for MICHIGAN ST ) = 4.4
KENTUCKY wins by 4.4 points.
TEAM RANKINGS
| RANK | TEAM | WINS | LOSSES | Home Advantage | Expected Point Advantage,EPA |
| 1 | KENTUCKY | 32 | 2 | -3.2 | 26.6 |
| 2 | MICHIGAN ST | 24 | 5 | -0.2 | 22.4 |
| 3 | KANSAS | 26 | 6 | -1.2 | 22.2 |
| 4 | NORTH CAROLINA | 28 | 5 | 0.3 | 22.1 |
| 5 | SYRACUSE | 31 | 2 | -1.1 | 21.8 |
| 6 | OHIO ST | 23 | 6 | 3.4 | 21.3 |
| 7 | DUKE | 26 | 6 | -4.4 | 21.0 |
| 8 | WICHITA ST | 26 | 4 | -2.2 | 20.6 |
| 9 | MEMPHIS | 24 | 8 | -0.2 | 20.3 |
| 10 | VANDERBILT | 24 | 10 | -6.9 | 20.3 |
| 11 | MISSOURI | 29 | 4 | -0.1 | 19.3 |
| 12 | KANSAS ST | 18 | 9 | -6.9 | 19.1 |
| 13 | WISCONSIN | 23 | 9 | 0.6 | 18.4 |
| 14 | BAYLOR | 26 | 7 | -0.7 | 17.6 |
| 15 | MICHIGAN | 24 | 8 | -6.2 | 17.5 |
| 16 | IOWA ST | 20 | 8 | -5.1 | 17.2 |
| 17 | LOUISVILLE | 25 | 9 | -1.6 | 16.8 |
| 18 | CREIGHTON | 28 | 5 | -3.6 | 16.6 |
| 19 | MARQUETTE | 25 | 7 | 2.3 | 16.5 |
| 20 | TEMPLE | 24 | 7 | -4.6 | 16.0 |
| 21 | INDIANA | 25 | 8 | 3.3 | 16.0 |
| 22 | VIRGINIA | 22 | 9 | -2.4 | 15.9 |
| 23 | N CAROLINA ST | 18 | 11 | -7.6 | 15.9 |
| 24 | FLORIDA | 23 | 10 | 3.4 | 15.7 |
| 25 | NEW MEXICO | 27 | 6 | 4.6 | 15.7 |
| 26 | BELMONT | 27 | 7 | -1.3 | 15.6 |
| 27 | SAINT LOUIS | 25 | 7 | 1.0 | 15.4 |
| 28 | UNLV | 25 | 8 | 4.1 | 15.4 |
| 29 | LONG BEACH ST | 20 | 7 | -6.8 | 15.2 |
| 30 | ALABAMA | 21 | 11 | -1.9 | 15.2 |
| 31 | CALIFORNIA | 24 | 8 | 1.6 | 14.9 |
| 32 | CINCINNATI | 24 | 10 | -2.3 | 14.8 |
| 33 | MIAMI (FL) | 18 | 12 | -1.5 | 14.6 |
| 34 | SAN DIEGO ST | 22 | 6 | -4.2 | 14.3 |
| 35 | ARIZONA | 23 | 11 | -2.9 | 14.1 |
| 36 | HARVARD | 26 | 4 | -4.8 | 14.0 |
| 37 | PITTSBURGH | 16 | 16 | -7.4 | 14.0 |
| 38 | IONA | 25 | 7 | -3.3 | 13.7 |
| 39 | PURDUE | 21 | 12 | 0.9 | 13.7 |
| 40 | MISSOURI ST | 16 | 15 | -10.3 | 13.7 |
| 41 | GEORGETOWN | 22 | 8 | 6.6 | 13.4 |
| 42 | MURRAY ST | 28 | 1 | -3.7 | 13.3 |
| 43 | OREGON | 22 | 8 | -3.8 | 13.3 |
| 44 | SOUTHERN MISS | 25 | 8 | -4.9 | 13.2 |
| 45 | SAINT MARY'S | 27 | 5 | 0.5 | 13.2 |
| 46 | MID TENNESSEE | 24 | 5 | -3.6 | 13.1 |
| 47 | CLEVELAND ST | 21 | 9 | -7.1 | 13.1 |
| 48 | WEST VIRGINIA | 18 | 13 | 0.5 | 12.8 |
| 49 | BYU | 23 | 7 | 0.9 | 12.7 |
| 50 | LA SALLE | 21 | 11 | -0.8 | 12.7 |
| 51 | CLEMSON | 16 | 14 | -3.5 | 12.6 |
| 52 | STANFORD | 21 | 11 | -0.7 | 12.2 |
| 53 | TEXAS | 20 | 13 | 5.6 | 12.2 |
| 54 | CONNECTICUT | 20 | 13 | 2.2 | 12.0 |
| 55 | NEVADA | 25 | 6 | -8.5 | 11.8 |
| 56 | FLORIDA ST | 19 | 9 | 7.0 | 11.6 |
| 57 | LOYOLA MARY | 19 | 11 | -10.3 | 11.4 |
| 58 | XAVIER | 21 | 12 | -1.4 | 11.3 |
| 59 | MINNESOTA | 19 | 14 | -0.8 | 11.2 |
| 60 | VCU | 25 | 6 | -1.5 | 11.1 |
| 61 | VIRGINIA TECH | 16 | 17 | -1.4 | 11.1 |
| 62 | WYOMING | 19 | 11 | -0.5 | 11.0 |
| 63 | NORTHWESTERN | 18 | 13 | -1.4 | 10.7 |
| 64 | TULSA | 16 | 14 | -3.0 | 10.6 |
| 65 | NEW MEXICO ST | 22 | 8 | -0.8 | 10.4 |
| 66 | OHIO | 27 | 7 | -1.1 | 10.4 |
| 67 | UCLA | 19 | 13 | 0.2 | 10.3 |
| 68 | MARSHALL | 20 | 13 | -2.0 | 10.3 |
| 69 | RUTGERS | 14 | 17 | -5.3 | 10.2 |
| 70 | NOTRE DAME | 22 | 11 | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| 71 | DREXEL | 27 | 6 | -1.5 | 9.9 |
| 72 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 20 | 13 | 1.6 | 9.9 |
| 73 | BUFFALO | 18 | 10 | -3.1 | 9.9 |
| 74 | ORAL ROBERTS | 26 | 6 | -1.2 | 9.6 |
| 75 | MISS. ST | 19 | 10 | 0.7 | 9.5 |
| 76 | SETON HALL | 19 | 12 | 5.0 | 9.2 |
| 77 | DAYTON | 20 | 12 | 1.4 | 9.1 |
| 78 | AIR FORCE | 13 | 16 | -10.7 | 9.0 |
| 79 | ILLINOIS | 16 | 15 | 1.9 | 8.9 |
| 80 | ST. BONAVENTURE | 20 | 11 | 3.5 | 8.8 |
| 81 | RICE | 16 | 15 | -5.4 | 8.7 |
| 82 | SAINT JOSEPH'S | 20 | 13 | 3.3 | 8.7 |
| 83 | WAGNER | 24 | 6 | -2.8 | 8.6 |
| 84 | WASHINGTON | 20 | 10 | 1.5 | 8.6 |
| 85 | KENT ST | 19 | 8 | -1.8 | 8.5 |
| 86 | VILLANOVA | 13 | 19 | 0.5 | 8.5 |
| 87 | COLORADO | 23 | 11 | 0.0 | 8.4 |
| 88 | GEORGIA TECH | 11 | 20 | -7.0 | 8.4 |
| 89 | GONZAGA | 25 | 6 | 7.7 | 8.3 |
| 90 | LEHIGH | 26 | 7 | 0.3 | 8.1 |
| 91 | TENNESSEE | 18 | 13 | 4.3 | 8.1 |
| 92 | DAVIDSON | 25 | 7 | 6.3 | 8.1 |
| 93 | MASSACHUSETTS | 22 | 11 | 2.8 | 8.0 |
| 94 | MANHATTAN | 20 | 11 | -5.2 | 7.9 |
| 95 | OLD DOMINION | 20 | 13 | -3.3 | 7.8 |
| 96 | DETROIT | 22 | 12 | -2.4 | 7.5 |
| 97 | UCF | 22 | 10 | -0.1 | 7.5 |
| 98 | IDAHO | 18 | 13 | -8.1 | 7.4 |
| 99 | MONTANA | 25 | 6 | -1.2 | 7.4 |
| 100 | AKRON | 22 | 11 | 4.4 | 7.3 |
CONFERENCE EFFECTS
| Conf.No. | Conf. Name | Conf. Effects |
| 1 | WestCoast | 3.9 |
| 2 | WestAthl | 3.6 |
| 3 | SunBelt | 0.2 |
| 4 | Summit | 0.1 |
| 5 | Southwest | -11.0 |
| 6 | Southland | -2.9 |
| 7 | Southern | -1.1 |
| 8 | Southeast | 10.5 |
| 9 | Patriot | -1.3 |
| 10 | Pac12 | 7.2 |
| 11 | Ohio Valley | -0.2 |
| 12 | Northeast | -2.1 |
| 13 | MtnWest | 9.9 |
| 14 | MissouriVal | 6.7 |
| 15 | MidEast | -4.7 |
| 16 | MidAmerica | 2.8 |
| 17 | Metro | 0.7 |
| 18 | Ivy | 2.7 |
| 19 | Independ | -8.6 |
| 20 | Horizon | 3.6 |
| 21 | ConfUSA | 8.1 |
| 22 | Colonial | 1.6 |
| 23 | BigWest | 0.6 |
| 24 | BigTen | 10.8 |
| 25 | BigSouth | -1.6 |
| 26 | BigSky | -1.5 |
| 27 | BigEast | 10.8 |
| 28 | Big12 | 10.7 |
| 29 | AmEast | -3.5 |
| 30 | ATLSun | 1.9 |
| 31 | ATLCoast | 11.6 |
| 32 | ATL10 | 7.3 |
| 33 | Leftovers | -17.8 |
Only the top 100 are shown.